New Delhi: When will the coronavirus end? This is the only question that is going on in everyone’s mind these days. And now the answer to this question has also come. The Kovid-19 pandemic may end in India around mid-September. This claim has been made by two public health experts of the Ministry of Health, who used analysis based on the mathematical formulation to arrive at this conclusion.
This is how assessment has been done
The analysis shows that this epidemic will end when the coefficient reaches 100 per cent. This analysis is published in the online journal Epidemiology International. The study was conducted by Dr Anil Kumar, Deputy Director (Public Health) in the Directorate General of Health Services (DJSH) in the Ministry of Health and Rupali Roy, Deputy Assistant Director (Leprosy) at DGHS.
He used Bailey’s mathematical model to arrive at this conclusion. This mathematical format considers the full-size distribution of an epidemic, including both infection and recovery.
This format was used as a continuous infection type, with infected individuals remaining the source of the infection until the infection is eradicated or killed by this cycle.
Also, the results of the relationship between the total infection rate and total recovery rate were also analyzed. According to the document, the actual pandemic in India started on March 2 and since then positive cases of Kovid-19 have increased.
For the analysis, experts took the data for Kovid-19 in India from Worldmasters.com Info, from March 1 to March 19, cases related to infection-free cases and deaths. According to the study document, the Belize Relative Removal Rate (BMRRR), a statistical analysis of Kovid-19 in India (Linear), has shown that the ‘Linear Line’ is approaching 100 by mid-September.